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Old 2008-09-22, 06:02 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Exclamation Follow up - Martingale fails

The Universum 100/100 EA has encountered a near-fatal, and quite spectacular failure. Let’s analyze what happened.

So around 5:00am it had a loss of $1020. Martingale "doubles up" on losses, so it opens 2 lots. It fails again, losing $2020. Double up again with 4.5 lots, and lose $4284 this time. Double up again with 8.5 lots, and lose $8670. Doubling up again, Universum tried to open up nearly 17 lots. Luckly there was not enough money in the account to do so, and some of the capital in the account was preserved.

<table border="0"><tbody><tr align="left"><td colspan="13">Closed Transactions:</td></tr><tr align="center" bgcolor="#c0c0c0"><td>Ticket</td><td>Open Time</td><td>Type</td><td>Size</td><td>Item</td><td>Price</td><td>S / L</td><td>T / P</td><td>Close Time</td><td>Price</td><td>Commission</td><td>Taxes</td><td>Swap</td><td>Profit</td></tr><tr align="right"><td title="#888 Universum_3.0[sl]">2749733</td><td>2008.09.15 22:00</td><td>buy</td><td>8.50</td><td>eurusd</td><td>1.4313</td><td>1.4211</td><td>1.4411</td><td>2008.09.16 02:02</td><td>1.4211</td><td>0.00</td><td>0.00</td><td>22.95</td><td>-8 670.00</td></tr><tr align="right" bgcolor="#e0e0e0"><td title="#888 Universum_3.0[sl]">2739611</td><td>2008.09.15 13:00</td><td>sell</td><td>4.20</td><td>eurusd</td><td>1.4183</td><td>1.4285</td><td>1.4085</td><td>2008.09.15 21:43</td><td>1.4285</td><td>0.00</td><td>0.00</td><td>0.00</td><td>-4 284.00</td></tr><tr align="right"><td title="#888 Universum_3.0[sl]">2735968</td><td>2008.09.15 10:00</td><td>buy</td><td>2.00</td><td>eurusd</td><td>1.4309</td><td>1.4208</td><td>1.4408</td><td>2008.09.15 12:30</td><td>1.4208</td><td>0.00</td><td>0.00</td><td>0.00</td><td>-2 020.00</td></tr><tr align="right" bgcolor="#e0e0e0"><td title="#888 Universum_3.0[sl]">2728623</td><td>2008.09.15 05:00</td><td>buy</td><td>1.00</td><td>eurusd</td><td>1.4401</td><td>1.4299</td><td>1.4499</td><td>2008.09.15 09:01</td><td>1.4299</td><td>0.00</td><td>0.00</td><td>0.00</td><td>-1 020.00</td></tr></tbody></table>
So, we went from a nice $29,000 balance, to below half - just $13,000.
Unfortunately, this particular EA is not programmed to deal with an error ("Not enough money") so it continues to try to open new positions indefinitely … or until you disable it.

At this point the only solution is to program the EA to be more intelligent. I have some ideas which I have put into effect which should help control the losses. They are running now, so let’s see how things fare next time there is a major wipe out.
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Last edited by PipCop; 2008-09-27 at 03:53 PM.
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