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Old 2008-11-26, 12:33 PM   #71 (permalink)
Pip Sergeant
 
Trader for 2 - 4 years
Location: Cambridge, MA
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I know some of you would like this thread, or my comments to die off and go away, but as long as the testing continues I am still very interested in this robot.


I just recieved this in a PM from anouther member,

I enjoyed your detailed comments on the Steinitz HAS MTF. (I've had the same concerns.) By coincidence, Don Steinitz called me last night and said that a member of their users' forum has written code to close the Steinitz HAS MTF after a profit of 10 to 15 pips (dollars? I can't remember what he said...) and then re-open another trade. Don said that that profit goal is reach after just 1 to 3 days.
I would be interested to know if this would solve your complaints about the HAS MTF lack of a real exit strategy.


...

The problem with the Steinitz isnt a lack of exit strategy. There are plenty of exit options available, but they're not used in the default settings. For what reasons??
They hurt the bottom line. They create automatic losses, as a properly run mechanical system should. Mechanical trading is a game of odds, not perfection.

I believe what Don was saying, and its evident from PipCop's testing results, is that the robot is capable of taking a targeted profit, and immediately opening anouther trade. Rather than the conventional thinking where it opens a trade on a signal, then closes on a signal or a take profit, and waits for the next signal to open a new trade. It can now take a targeted profit and immediately open anouther trade as long as the original signal hasnt been disrupted.

This results in a string of quick trades, until the final one catches a reversal and stays in open limbo, with no preset exit strategy. I would think that a simple qualifier to close any existing open positions on an indicator color change would sufice. If this was done one time frame higher, which is available, it would give that last trade a chance to reach the profit target without an immediate loss, but it would definately create more closed losses.

Closed losses are part of any good trading system. Attempting perfect track records is not. Holding them open on a long term effort to reach profit only works if there is a full sucession of supporting trend lines, up several time frames above the operating time frame, and only if you've got an unlimited account balance to put at risk. Further, holding open trades interferes with the robots ability to open new trades.

(And no the robot does not require all the higher time frames to be in support, only as high as you specify. It will search downward from whatever time frame you choose, and lock onto the first counter trend it senses. It will then open a trade after that counter trend reverses. Counter to the counter trend , but with the main trend .)

This robot can be run succesfully. But, it takes a trader with an understanding of moving average systems, and a willingness to actively manage and optimize the robot. As you can see from the comments here, and on other sites, EA traders dont want that responsibility, or level of involvement.

I find this kind of strange, well not really. It simply implies that most EA traders, are not really traders. They want the same thing out of a robot that they want out of a managed account. Total seperation from the trading proccess and a scapegoat to blame whenever their comfort zone is breached.

We are getting to the point where robots like this will be available. There is no reason other than sophistication and knowledge, the combining of intelects between traders and programers, and the willingness and interest in puting the effort in, and creating a product of this quality. It will come to be, but for now its open season for all the EA marketers, and we're the prey.

The bottom line, again, the Steinitz is a simple multiple moving average robot. I dont believe it has any other useful indicators in its program. The easiest movement in the market is based on trend and range so this should work on some level, and it does, quite well in fact. All it needs to do is manage its positions better. In lieu of that, any good trader can manage a position, and any person who is thinking of putting real money behind one of these robots had better understand what it bases its decisions on, and how to mange it manualy.

I dont own this robot. I am interested, there is a lot I like about it, but it has a lot of problems, and there are many things I would like to see improved. For instance, the smoothed moving average is an ok indicator to determine long term trend , but it is a horibbly lagging indicator for trading signals. An exponential average is much better at focusing on the current price movement.

And dont make any mistakes about the Heiken Ashi indicator , its a beautiful indicator , but he dosent use it as anything more than a colorful moving average crossover system. The same thing could be done with a simple moving average . This is mostly marketing, people like fancy looking indicators with colorful bars, no one really wants to pay for a moving average system. And thats all this is.

It does not read the bars for volitility and avoid opening positions near the end of a trend . It does not compare the indicator to the real price before opening a trade and avoid the big divergences and overextended moves. However it does capture enough of a move, over and over again, to make an interesting scalper, with a series of take profits, and a final exit strategy.

Enough said, I know its been said, but I enjoy working on this one. There is potential here. It needs refinement and managment, but it has great potential.


??For those of you who have this robot. Is there any other indicator , other than the Heiken Ashi smoothed, in this program and available to us, that we might use to time trades better? Are the parameters for the Heiken Ashi indicator that it uses open to us? Can we change the smoothing ratios?


Does anyone know where I can download the lower Heiken Ashi indicators? I have the upper price bar Heiken Ashi and Heiken Ashi Smoothed indicators, but I like the lower MTF bar indicators that he uses, they seem like they could be an interesting time saver. Simply running a Guppy Multiple Moving Average of the Heiken Ashi Smoothed can do the same thing, but it get too congested to read easily. Seperating them into individual bars is nicer.


It is the user controls that make this a potentialy valuable robot.

Ken

..., I've posted this under the Steinitz thread. Its only really worthwhile for me to take the time for this sort of commenting if I can share it publicaly and get feedback. I have no real interest in individual messaging.

Likewise, if or when I set up this robot and work on optimizing and managing it, I will run it on demo and live accounts of my own, and post any results for all to see. I really dont need funding, only a willingness to take the risks, and the time to get set up. Almost all of my money and my trading is in IRA's, and I havent rolled any of those to a Forex accesible location yet. I've only had a Meta Trader account for 2 months now, and my only other Forex account is just an attachment to an options and equities account and only has a very small balance, just so I could work and test ideas. Things are moving more rapidly now, knowledge and experience, and I hope to be setting up and funding permanent accounts soon. Its just everything takes time, and I keep finding new things to test.


Forex Killer works well, and FAPS Turbo is working very well, but its only been one day.
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Old 2008-11-26, 01:22 PM   #72 (permalink)
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You already know my feelings on this one - so you're not gonna get much more outta me...

But - Just for the record, in my previous posts, I DID say Don was a great guy - and that the bot did work... till the "big one"... So, if you can handle the huge DD's - that is the only complaint going around... And that really isn't about exit strategy - more than how to make it work with a S/L - I saw on FPA that one gal did a 2 to 3 (or the likes) T/P - S/L and that works for her... I've tried it with a 150 S/L and since it is a counter-trend trader, 8 of the first 10 orders went south over 150 pips - so - I don't see how that really could work for the long run -

Either way -Watching Pip Cop's daily results, He has a $5K account that is already 60% absorbed with NO profit (or is bleeding red bad) - Was reading PC's comments about setting it up again last night - and he intends to cut his losers at the end of the month (per Don's advice) - Well, that's this Friday if I'm reading my calender correctly - So, unless he has a miraculous turnaround in the next 36 hours, he's gonna lose $2000 of his $5000 in 2 days - and the next 4 weeks, if similar to the past - will bury his $3000 in margin calls - or close to it -

Looking forward... as I've said before, it's a good product, but needs more work - esp regarding these deadly DD's -

Since you mentioned other EA's - I'm now testing several others found via this board - and so far RoboMiner is smoking them all - I'm seeing 18%-25% PER DAY with aggressive settings - but has only been a couple of weeks -

FWIW - Demark and Evolution are "OK" but the DD's are huge there too (not as bad as FRT) - Ironically, FAPS (standard) hasn't done too badly... I trade it occasionally WITH a 150 S/L - for without it, FAPS will blow you up too -

And yeah.... Saw all the usual "hype" over Turbo FAPS - has only been out 1 trading day - and am sure it's close to FAPS original - but is a suckers software - Support is lousy - and "the gang" over there that pumps out am EA monthly for $97 with the usual marketing hype and fanfare doesn't impress me in the least - or make me want to even look at it.. Maybe Pip Cop can forward test a copy? Doubt they'll offer a demo though --- PC, I do have a legit FAPS demo if you wish to test here-

Cheers -

KB

Last edited by Killer-B; 2008-11-26 at 01:27 PM.
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Old 2008-11-26, 01:28 PM   #73 (permalink)
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I've actually be surprised that most companies are very willing to provide a demo. Ive got FAPS and some others in my sights for the future. If they won't offer me a free demo, I'll just buy a copy. I suspect their software is non-transferable, so while I appreciate the offer I have to remain high and dry legally. The site is making a little money from the Google ads, so I figure in a few months I'll have the cash to start buying these commercial products, which will be nice.Since we're all so patient and understand that it's worth the wait to be safe with our funds, I am sure we can hold out for a few months, huh?
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Old 2008-11-26, 02:03 PM   #74 (permalink)
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Understood... Just trying to help :-)

No problemo -
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Old 2008-11-26, 02:23 PM   #75 (permalink)
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Default $500 Live Account Sheet

Since PipCop got the attachment thingy working now - I went through and was trying to find my statements for this EA and live account - This outfit only sent out weekly statements - so for now, this is what I have to offer - Will try to find my later attempts over the holiday -

Either way, if you wanna see a train-wreck in slow-motion ... $500 account, after 1 week, with .01 - trading only 5 pairs -

Of course, if I had a $50K account, and let it ride - would be a different story - but suspect 90% of the visitors here do not play with that much - or if they do - wouldn't trust an EA with it....

Point being, it's not the trades it makes - it's the DD that KILL - I'll stop beating the dead horse now
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Old 2008-11-26, 02:42 PM   #76 (permalink)
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Ouch! Better leave that testing to me and save your money!
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Old 2008-11-26, 02:50 PM   #77 (permalink)
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Ya well - ahem - live and learn It's only money eh?

And just to show what a sucker I am (cuz I do believe this product CAN work) - this was only "Week 1" - I didn't throw in the towel till October!!

I was (re)thinking last night, that with 10 pairs, and no DD worries - You're really just throwing everything at the wall, and about 80% sticks with FRT... and it's the 20% that kills ya...

But I'll digress......

Honestly, I've been watching RoboMiner - and see now what it's doing... on just the AUS/NZD pairs - it's playing that range very well.... Impressive...

Are you going to close out the demo tomorrow? Or let it run?

Cheers-

KB
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Old 2008-11-26, 02:53 PM   #78 (permalink)
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Yeah, I've wasted money on far more useless things.

Yeah, RoboMiner ... I'm in love so far.

At the end of the month I close out the worst performing EAs. I have not officially started doing that as of yet, and considering the holiday and such I may not get to it. However, if an EA is on the bottom of the list ... yeah ... don't expect me to hold onto it when I could free up the space to test something else!
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Old 2008-11-26, 03:01 PM   #79 (permalink)
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Oh yeah - it's Thanksgiving LOL - Totally spaced out!

Anyway, wasn't clear on my reason -

On Page 1 - you stated this:

The following settings were changed to accommodate our trading platform:

Lot size: 0.05 (per directions)
Broker Is IBFX: True (per directions)
Account Is Mini: False
Close Trades at end of month: True (Recommended by Don Steinitz)

So, since you're "down" some... was curious if you would close, or let it run? Don't nuke the EA just yet! I wanna see if it recovers - or - well you know....

Have a great holiday - everyone!

KB
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Old 2008-11-26, 03:06 PM   #80 (permalink)
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Oh, sorry, I thought you were referring to the Review Criteria.

Uh ... well, I tend to leave these things alone. I mean ... really, that's the whole point . I could change the setting, but that sort of concedes defeat. Right?

Either way, I don't really care, I don't think this one is going to survive no matter what I do.
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