Rsmereka Trading Journal

[rsmereka]

Originally Posted by pipdetector

Yes, this is when I start wondering too. This cannot be that simple... When everybody starts using this pension fund builder AUD/NZD price range may start breaking. Just imagine me, you, Jerries and couple of other trading AUD/NZD pair with 1M accounts. Plus hundreds of other gold afficionados lured by more and more Goldmine advertising campaign and enthusiastic reviews...

I am hoping that it is that simple but you never know. One wrinkle I can forsee right now is MT5. An updated version of the EA will be required because MQL is changing significantly. That is a small change compared to a big change like the range changing on AUDNZD. Right now, I am running hot at one mini. I should have 20K to support this lot size. So if there is a range change, I hope that it is after middle of next year when my balance factor will reach normal.

Rick

[jerrycollie]

Hi Rick and Pipdetector,
Okay, the math is good: 2,000 times 2 to the 10th power is a little over $2 million; but as the Great Bard once said, "The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray!"
I don't expect AUD/NZY to break its range ; but a severe difference in interest rates could cause such a problem.
I don't think 10 thousand traders using RoboMiner is the problem. If we are all selling, it should drive the price in our direction.
Right now we are all trading under the radar. The problem will be apparent when you try to place multi-lot orders. This is going to attract the attention of the brokers. The brokers don't want to hand us each a million dollars. The brokers and their bankers are in the business of making a profit.
What can they do?
1. Raise the spread (as in Fapturbo).
2. Raise the interest rate (charge you swap for both AUD and NZD).
3. Increase the number of error messages, i.e. requotes, context busy, etc. to keep you in the trade while they charge you more swap fees.
4. Drop your connection to MT4, while they charge you more swap fees.
5. Outlaw using robots. (Super FIFO ).
6. Maybe even break the range of AUD/NZD.
7. It is not applicable to Robominer; but they can run your stops.
What can we do?
1. Spread our trades out over several brokers to avoid big trades.
2. Diversify using other robots.
3. Diversify using other forex pairs.
4. Use other family members' accounts.
Okay, it is now 6.8 years minus one day. Good luck Rick!

[pipdetector]

Jerry,

Wow, a very good listing of risks.

At this moment, I am already diverifying, I have started using 2 brokers and I added USD/JPY to my GT-Shadow currencies porfolio.

The most serious points seem:
2. They can really kill RB/GT-Shadow profitability with swap rates. This is already a problem with long standing positions and with somebrokers...
5. This is already happening I think that FIFO has been instituted because someone wanted to drive a whole swarm of robots off the US (so we got a precedent).

On the other hand, RM trades should not bother the brokers too much, because they do make profit on them on spreads that are quite high compared to other major currency pairs. Every closed RM trade means 6-20 pips spread in their voluminous pockets. I think however that if the big fishes smell that grid trading is really profitable they start using it themselves -- and start lobbying against using it by the public...

[rsmereka]

The moment I have dreaded all month is here. I have to report my massive month loss from the vForce trade that went awry on Aug 7th. I also had a large (given the lot size) MegaDroid loss (as did a lot of people) on Aug 12th.

Month: -$4,066.79, -31.62%, -$203.34/day

Needless to say that is the worst month I have had in my trading history and I hope that it is never repeated.

On the plus side. Since Aug 10th when I put Robominer on my live account, it generated $399.69 in profit or 4.63% ROI. It's a shame that my MegaDroid loss wiped out almost half of the Robominer profit this month.

I built a program to estimate my retirement from my full-time job based on 6% ROI per month at first and then 10% per month once I start trading both Robominer currencies. The retirement threshold is 100K. Once I have that equity in my trading account, I figure that I can withstand any trading bumps without having to go back to work. According to my program and if I make contributions to my trading account of $400 per month, I will reach the 100K mark and be able to retire at the end of Oct 2011

I think the goals I have set out are reasonable but time will tell whether I can stay on track.

Rick

[rsmereka]

Wow, a very good listing of risks.

I agree. A very complete list, Jerry. So complete, in fact, that it scares me

We may have to change brokers eventually when our lot size gets larger.

There has been a large number of traders start using Robominer or GT in the last half a year. I think that most of them will get bored and move on but that still leaves a lot of traders with trading AUDNZD and the lot sizes getting bigger. If the brokers react the same way they reacted to FAP Turbo, we are done for. ECN is the only way to go and I think that eventually, I will get forced to move to an ECN broker . If the brokers would only be happy with the high spread they are earning from the AUDNZD pair. I am still pi**ed that the spread is hidden. It does not appear on the statement and most EA's do not record it in the experts log. Some EA's display it on the screen (as if that is a big help). When I look at my statement, I have no idea what the spread was.

I could used the 'ticksinmysql' EA to load a database with the spread but there are no seconds on the open or close time so I would have to average the spread over a minute and that is simply not accurate enough.

Ho hum
Rick

[pipdetector]

I must admit that spread makes quite a difference. I have set up a demo with FxPro and instead of the average/regular FxPro AUD/NZD spread that is shown on MarketWatch list of MT4 (10 pips), when a position is closed the effective spread is 20-25 pips. And this does not happen in the night hours or high volatility periods -- it is all the time -- and this is just a demo :-) It seems that they somehow nibble additional 10+ each time. I wonder if FxPro guys are already fighting Robominer guerrilla... Luckily this does not happen with FXDD yet...

[rsmereka]

Originally Posted by pipdetector

I must admit that spread makes quite a difference. I have set up a demo with FxPro and instead of the average/regular FxPro AUD/NZD spread that is shown on MarketWatch list of MT4 (10 pips), when a position is closed the effective spread is 20-25 pips. And this does not happen in the night hours or high volatility periods -- it is all the time -- and this is just a demo :-) It seems that they somehow nibble additional 10+ each time. I wonder if FxPro guys are already fighting Robominer guerrilla... Luckily this does not happen with FXDD yet...

I just checked with Goldmine and their recommended broker is FXDD. Of course, that does not mean that they give the best spread . FxPro seems to be playing a real dirty trick with the AUDNZD spread from what you have said.

It just irks me that I don't know what the spread is on each trade and it's darn near impossible to find out. I just scanned through the experts log and the EA does not 'print' both the bid and ask price on open or close. I did, however find tons of messages from MegaDroid complaining about the spread of EURUSD being anywhere from 4.5 to 6 pips. Now I know one of the key reasons why MegaDroid is not trading that much anymore. The brokers are doing it again. First it was them playing spread games with FAP Turbo and now the most traded pair in Forex, EURUSD, is being subjected to spread games...Great

Rick

[pipdetector]

Originally Posted by rsmereka

I did, however find tons of messages from MegaDroid complaining about the spread of EURUSD being anywhere from 4.5 to 6 pips. Now I know one of the key reasons why MegaDroid is not trading that much anymore. The brokers are doing it again. First it was them playing spread games with FAP Turbo and now the most traded pair in Forex, EURUSD, is being subjected to spread games...Great

Rick

That explains a lot... I am afraid that the night hours trading becomes less and less attractive. If MD was really ready to strike any time of the day it would not be a problem, it is really easy to defend against it if you know that it activates just between 23 and 1 GMT. If it was able to work profitably in the other hours the general FX crowd would not allow for this (brokers would be risking much more of their business).

[jerrycollie]

Hi Rick,
Yes, you are running a little hotter than I am. I think you are okay for now. Just watch your drawdown . Plot your wins and drawdown in a spread sheet, if necessary. If it gets out of control, you can cut back the risk, or shut down RB for awhile, or if necessary close out some of the oldest trades and take the loss. Also, watch the interest rates on the Audie and the Kiwi . If the interest on the Audie goes up, or the interest on the Kiwi goes down, this could cause a trend reversal. Hopefully the price will just move sideways for the next 6 month while we bank a few coins.
Like you said, there is not much we can do about the spread ; because we don't even know what we paid; and then there is the slippage to boot.
Good luck this week!

[jerrycollie]

Hi Pipdetector,
I understand you are running GT-Shadow with RoboMiner settings on AUD/NZD, is that correct? What I want you to do is clone your robot with its RM settings. You will have to change the two magic numbers which I believe are 10000001 and 20000001. Change the first digit only; because the robot uses the last digits to count its grid levels. So you might use 30000001 and 40000001. Then go back up to the grid weaving section and change grid weaving from false to true. Don't change any other settings in the grid weaving section. Now hit the Okay button and turn the robot loose. Let us know what happens. It should nickle and dime AUD/NZD to death!
Good luck from jerrycollie running live on IBFX!