Forex Funnel

[rsmereka]

After Killer-B's comments about Forex Funnel here, I thought that a thread specific to Forex Funnel would be called for.

I am very interested in this EA and am willing to give it a try but I have read very conflicting reports. The first report that I would like to point out is the demo account statement at 4xproject.com found here. This demo ran a little less than two months and ended up blowing the account. The account was funded in line with the author's recommendation (2.5K per micro...right). Why did the account blow? Killer-B, you stated that 5K per micro is more like what should be used, is that right? Why do you say that?

My broker account is a classic with Alpari UK which means that I would need between 25K and 50K depending on who is correct about account funding. It sounds like a mini account where micro lots are allowed is pretty much a mandatory thing.

Rick

[Killer-B]

Originally Posted by rsmereka

After Killer-B's comments about Forex Funnel here, I thought that a thread specific to Forex Funnel would be called for.

I am very interested in this EA and am willing to give it a try but I have read very conflicting reports. The first report that I would like to point out is the demo account statement at 4xproject.com found here. This demo ran a little less than two months and ended up blowing the account. The account was funded in line with the author's recommendation (2.5K per micro...right). Why did the account blow? Killer-B, you stated that 5K per micro is more like what should be used, is that right? Why do you say that?

My broker account is a classic with Alpari UK which means that I would need between 25K and 50K depending on who is correct about account funding. It sounds like a mini account where micro lots are allowed is pretty much a mandatory thing.

Rick

Sorry Rsmereka - I didn't see your post/starter thread till just now - I know you said you wanted to start one (or me to) and was just logging on to do so.... So, we can either run with yours - and have PC move the existing files/comments over - or I can start a fresh one - Matters not to me...

I will answer 3 quick questions - and then I must go till the weekend and will try to field more then...

But in looking at that one report - May 28, 2009 was a bad day for EVERYONE - as the USD spiked some insane amount without ever "retracing" 20 pips - I think it went 525 pips on the USD/JPY in one or two hours (I'd have to scroll back in time and see) but that did toast my DEMO account too -

If you look closely at their trade records, most times it's cashing out in 1x 2x or 3x trades (martingale/doubling) which is only 65 pips.... and it was really doing fine till the 28th - It went 9x (.01, .02, .04, .08 all the way to 2.56 - and even tried 5.12 - but by then, the account was too dry to cover that) (I don't know what leverage they used?) but I've never had a pair go past 7X without retracing 20 pips to cash out in profit -

Point being, I can not defend this "day" - as shit happens - but - if you were watching it - or if you were funded at 5000:1 - you could have made the 5.12 trade (or it would have been really a 2.56 trade/lot using 5000:1) and he would have survived once it "dipped" (retraced) the 20 pips south to recover...

I have scrolled back 19 years in time (or whatever it is since FOREX came "online") and could only find 3 such days where it rose more than 400 pips, without retracing - This is a prime example of what is "wrong" with martingale trading.... and supports Pip Cop's stance that it's "too risky to play with" -

All that said though - and like I've mentioned earlier on - if this "person" (tester) had saw that that was a Non-Farm Payroll day (I remember it VERY well!) -- they would have adjusted their lots down to next to nothing anticipating a jump (like .001 vs. .01) and he would have easily survived - and actually made money in the end.... But, we are looking for "total automation" here - You overlook the 2 months of SUCCESSFUL trading it put in before hitting that Friday (and just FWIW, I am waiting for my last current trade to close out - then am shutting FF off for this Friday, as tomorrow is a Non-Farm Payroll day - and the news has been getting better these days for the USD) - And FF tends to favor the short trend (sell) -- so -- if it "spikes" 300-500 pips tomorrow WITHOUT EVER ONCE "retracing" 20 pips south, you are indeed toast... but in the 19 years I've checked, I've only seen it happen 2 or 3 times.... (You can set it to 1HR and look yourself - there are many 200-500 pip "spikes" but during those times, it ALWAYS (well, 99.99999%) will "dip down" 20 pips, and close your position in the profit... and then just reloads at .01 - and starts climbing again... Then, once at the "top" of the range (again, you have to know your technicals) I load up my lots, and put that puppy in Sell/Short mode, and ride the free fall all the way down to the bank.... as it ALWAYS falls back at least 50% on "news" (that is why I had such a stellar WEDS yesterday!) Closed $2K in 1 hour.... off of 220 pip news rise/swing - but always comes back to center.... Just like the NZD retreating from it's all-time highs now - it will "settle" eventually - but you must watch the news and reports and what the Dollar is doing overall.... (that is part of learning to "trade") --

I've *always* said this is not a perfect EA - and you do have to watch it - so it's not 100% automated - you can't always just "set it and forget it" - You have to EARN your money people - But, if you do like I've learned/said - "odds are" you'll do very well with it... They (the tester you referenced) were doing great w/ FF till they blew it on a bad news day (actually, was a great news day that sent the USD soaring) -

It's just very rare to see a straight-line "runner" like that without it retracing a measly 20 pips - So, learn your calendars - and just watch the news days - and you'll be fine!

As to lot and ratios etc - the "author" says to use 2500:1 -- Their "results" show a MAX of 45% DD - and I am not comfy with that - so - yes, I bumped mine to 5000:1 -- and have had 2 "close calls" (it went to 55% DD once I think for like 30 mins?) but then dropped (retraced) that crucial 20 pips, and closed out in a huge profit - So, I actually run this now for 2 friends, and started both on 5000:1 and their starting lots are .05 (NOT .1) and this buys one more level of "cushion" and they are now complaining that the amounts are not large enough (wins) - yet they are closing 1-4 winners a day...! I just won't let them go higher to avoid that "blow out" - Again, if you are well funded, and manage your lots, you can't lose --- Yes, the 2500:1 will even let you survive - but it is riskier (IMHO) and really, going back to your example - if the trader had just "switched off" at the first sign of a "runner" -- he would have maybe lost $100 bucks? as .01 at 500 pips is nothing compared to blowing an entire account -

I've said several times before, you do have to watch it - but if it's at the top of a "range" and not a heavy news day (Usually WEDS and FRI) I then trade heavy on SUN, MON, TUES, THURS and I do just "set it and forget it" and walk away and sleep like a baby.... It's the News on WEDS that usually stresses accounts (everyone's - not just USD/JPY or FF) - and again, Non-Farm Payroll Fridays - Just LEARN what days they are (once a month) - and either reduce your lots next to nothing - or flick it off for one day and start trading again on Sunday (though, watch the "gap" as USD/JPY will gap on Sunday 10-65 pips) It did 65 pips this week on Sunday - but was short /sell, so closed in the profit withing 5 seconds of the opening bell

OK? It's 100% valid and legit - but that one day, was a very bad day for all - And I've shown how you could avoid that - but nothing is "perfect" and nothing is 100% - it is risk trading we're doing here..... And not to belabor the point , but what if they had started 6 months earlier, and had 12K or 20K in their accounts, and left it at .01? Never would have even come close to blowing up..... so it's all relative really - Just bad timing, and poor management (by not following news days or flicking it off after seeing a "runner") - but we want total automation - and FF is NOT that... you have to mind the farm at least a couple times a week (I let it run ALL day today from 6 a.m. till now (7p.m.) and it did fine - closed $1,100 in profit and is about to close one more that is at 3x as the USD is "upticking" - but consolidating awaiting the news at 06:30 EST - So yes, I was 100% comfortable leaving it on those days where I know there's really no major news coming... (BTW - the last "scare" came from Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize like at 3 a.m. my time - and the USD SOARED like 300-400 pips, and I never saw it coming (no one did! Not even Obama LMAO!) - but see, that's the "risk" in trading in any program (EA) - you can't foresee those types of events that "spike" the market - So, it shot up - retraced 20 pips, and I closed out with a handsome profit (went 7x I believe) and while I was only 50% into my account DD - It was beyond my comfort zone - but I survived.... Point is, "you never know" what will pop up - even at 3 a.m. - Just look at the tables/records for 9/11 ....

Lastly - someone asked about brokers - I searched high and low - and settled on 2 - (both offer low entry, take Credit Cards, and offer 500:1 leverage ) - One came from here on PipCop - but have never seen them since - but is "forex4you" - and are "OK" - No min deposit - Take Credit Cards - Never had to send Passport of ID or anything (kinda scary really) but did process my wire out to my bank in 48 hours - Are non-regulated - and non-NFA and encourage scalping etc - and have fixed spreads - but for USD/JPY it's 3 pips - and it's 1 pip too many as I've missed many a "close" by just one or 2 pips - and that frustrates me - So, I opened a FXPro business account and funded that in Euro's for my time overseas - it's a 5 decimal broker - so if you do buy FF - make sure you get the version geared for that (there is a 4 decimal and 5 decimal version out there) - so if you go with FXPro - make sure your software is 5 - I've yet to go live on that account - as I'm waiting to go back overseas before doing so -- so I have no idea as to their payouts (if it's reliable or not) and their spreads are NOT fixed -but claim 1 pip on USD/JPY - but we all know how that goes on news days... Then again, if you're not trading news - then you're fine

Well, there's more - Allot more - as I didn't expect to start off this way.... I guess when PC moves the older stuff over here.... just make sure you follow the "basics"...

I gotta get back to it- but will try to answer and add more over the weekend -

Cheers,

KB

PS: While typing this, my final trade closed out - and am almost at 69K - so - made $9K this WEEK and am NOT going to trade Friday.... Nothing is "free" and "easy" in life... I did my homework this week - and it all played to perfection - I am VERY LUCKY but also educated myself.... I will now stand aside, and enjoy my earnings and have a good 3 day weekend It does work people - see attached shot from 15 seconds ago -- Good luck!

[Killer-B]

I can't get MT4Stats to work So here.... see this....

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Kill...killerbee/5253

In looking at this, I forgot to mention that I did a MANUAL trade 1.0 back in JUN - at around 101.00 I believe -and just let it "sit"... thinking (hoping!) the market would pull back - It did not - and fell all the way to 88.00 over 5 months - so around 92.00 I decided to "cut my loss" and closed that order - that is the -10K "hit" you'll see, and why it dips drastically - but FF does not open more than one buy at a time, so by me hanging on to that for all that time, I did all this (till the past 6 weeks) with "sell/short" only!? Now, I have "buy" back... but just want to be clear, that FF did NOT cause that 10K hit... that was my ignorance.... As I've said, I've been "learning" this the past 9 months - and have made many mistakes (manually) - but none with FF - So without that blunder, I'd really be at $79K in 5 months

About the DEMO? No, you have to purchase it - but you get 60 days to return if not happy thru ClickBank -

As to starting balance - I would drop 5K into a mini account till you get a feel for it - and only start trading small lots -

Good luck!

[rsmereka]

Killer-B,

A very good and complete explanation. Thanks

One question:

Typical floating DD. You talked out 50% max but what is the typical and what is the max? How long do the trades stay open. What I am trying to get at here is can FF co-exist with other EA's in the same account or is that too risky?

The issues that I am concerned with are:

1. No free demo but you have 60 days to return it as you said.

2. I would have to open another mini account. My live account is standard lot and there is no way I would risk those kind of lot sizes (1 mini minimum) with FF. This all assumes that the demo would turn out ok.

3. I would have to fund a second account diverting important funds from my primary live account.

4. It's not 100% hands off and I would have to remember about the witching days.

All of this is workable however with some effort on my part (groan...I am such a slob ).

Rick

[trendcat]

killer hello,
how long were you trading .1 lot
and how much are you trading now with the 68k fund you have now
thanks

[rsmereka]

Killer-B,

I encountered some problems verifying your claims:

But in looking at that one report - May 28, 2009 was a bad day for EVERYONE - as the USD spiked some insane amount without ever "retracing" 20 pips - I think it went 525 pips on the USD /JPY in one or two hours (I'd have to scroll back in time and see) but that did toast my DEMO account too

Please find attached a USDJPY D1 chart from my live account (I had to 'zip' it because this *$(#!$ site flagged a jpg dimension error that did not make any sense when I tried to upload the 'jpg'). In it, the mouse is pointing at May 28, 2009 and you can read from the status line that the open price was 95.302, close was 96.956 for a total range that day of 65.4 pips. As a matter of fact, the range of that entire period was not abnormal for the pair.

Here are some prices before and after May 28th:

May 26: o:94.809, c:94.928, r:11.9 pips
May 27: o:94.929, c:95.310, r:38.1 pips

May 29: o:96.951, c:95.325, r:162.6 pips
Jun 01: o:95.281, c:96.591, r:131 pips

All that said though - and like I've mentioned earlier on - if this "person" (tester) had saw that that was a Non-Farm Payroll day (I remember it VERY well!)

May 28, 2009 was a Thursday, so it could not have been a non-Farm Payroll day. There were some major USD news events and some non-so major JPY events.
According to the Forex Factory, May 28, 2009 was not a non-Farm Payroll day. That was May 8, 2009

The 4xproject.com statement file has the following problem days (IMO):

April 15, 2009
May 27-28 2009

Checking the Forex calendar, April 15th was a Wednesday. There were a couple of major USD news items but it was not a non-Farm Payroll day.

Ditto for May 27 and 28. The 27th was a Wednesday which saw one major news item and I have already spoke about Thursday the 28th of May.

So now I am really confused about FF and your comments. Please clarify.

Rick

[Killer-B]

Rick - I wrote that ALL from memory - and I appreciate and respect you going back to double check my figures.... I only went off the statement YOU gave me - which was the tail end of the month -- and saw it had gone up 9 times in trade (so 9 x 30 pip average, would be 270 pip movement) as I did toast an account "towards the end of May" on a huge move that did not ever once retrace 20 pips... As I said, it is rare but it happens -

That said, that was 7 months ago - so forgive me if I am off a week or 2 - or if I don't recall the exact event that blew up my account (like the Obama announcement) - The reason I know it was towards the end of May - is that I OPENED a new cash account June 3rd (which you can see on my FXBook if PC hasn't removed those links) --- and that shows my starting day (6/3) and my starting balance and every trade since...

Point being, I did this right on the heels of my micro account getting blown up - and it coincides with your "testers" results - But now you tell me it didn't go that high (and it may have been 12 hours before, or 12 hours after - therefore making "Friday") I really don't know mate.... As I said, I was doing this all as a courtesy and trying to go from memory -

Give me the weekend to go thru my old FX statements for May and I'll see if I can find the movement that blew me up - and what caused it - But in looking at your #'s here - May 29th thru June 1 - it rose 250 pips (approx) and so maybe it hit that "Friday" and rolled onto Monday.... and drove them to 5.12 adn blew them up?? - I can't say without looking back- - but it was a Friday - (as your #'s support) - but could be off b/c of GMT by a few hours -- It really doesn't matter as it still toasted the account....

B

[Killer-B]

I don't know what you're looking at - but scrolled back to May 28th and shows a 265 pip jump in 4-5 hours - and then again, 250ish on June 1st in 3-4 hours... IF they had enough margin /cash (5000:1) they could have peaked - and rode it down for a nice profit and done it all again on Jun 1 -

So the combo of those 2 - probably blew up that account ---

The KEY is - on either of those 2 days (see chart) it never retraced -20 pips to exit the position and profit - Esp on June 1st -

All I know is one of those 2 days toasted my micro account, and that is when I opened a new account on the 3rd and started trading live cash large...

See attached -

B

[Killer-B]

PS: I just looked at your ZIP file image - you are on Daily Charts mate... you gotta break it down to hourly to see the action -

I am telling you, over the past 10 months, I have scrolled back 19 years in time, on ONE HOUR charts, and only found 2 or 3 instances of 200-400 pip "spikes" without it ever retracing (like on the 1st and 28th) - Now, scrolling back in time takes days not minutes - and it is VERY possible that I missed one - But the bottom line is - IF they had traded 5000:1 - as you can see, it peaked, and they'd been out with profit - no prob, and even the 1st, was a smaller rise - and they'd survived (your tester) - They were underfunded (as was I - I think it was a 500 cash account - and it blew me up) -

Secondly - I said in my first response to you "Forgive me, I am going from memory here" and that I'd have to "scroll back in time" to get the exact dates... and amounts - so show me a little grace here, eh? I'm trying to help here - and my past 5 months of trading are 100% public - so you can see those - the good, bad, and ugly -

COMBINED, May 28th and June 1st totaled 500+ pips in gain - so - I was technically correct - Forgive me for not remembering the exact sequence from 7-8 months ago - I do remember being BLOWN UP!!! - and I also have said, this is not perfect AND that I've been "learning as I go" - I've had 2 "close calls" since then (45% per FXBook) DD - which is more than I care for.... but it did not toast me - and I have reduced my lots since those scares... It's just money/lot management 101 vs. greed!

[Killer-B]

Double Post