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Forex robot reviews Current forward tests of MetaTrader Forex robots (Expert Advisors)

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Old 2013-01-14, 10:20 AM   #1
rsmereka
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Default X Trader

This review thread is about the EA X Trader. This is a free EA. I obtained this EA from the MQL4 Code Base. I have no affiliation with anyone in conjunction with this review.

This EA is a generic twin moving average cross trend trader. That is, it opens trades on the cross of two moving averages. The important thing with this EA is finding:

1. a good currency pair
2. a good time frame
3. good settings

Every aspect of the two MA's used in this EA can be configured. In this thread, I focus on SMA's (simple moving averages), with no shift and price applied on bar close only.

This EA uses a fixed stoploss (SL) and take profit (TP) and has no money management (MM) so all lot sizes are fixed.

I set up my tick data (I have talked about that in detail) using the EURUSD pair and decided to find the optimal settings for the H1, M5 and D1 time frames.

Here is an index to the individual X Trader trading systems:

1. EURUSD H1
2. EURUSD H1 variation #2 (obsolete)
3. EURUSD M5 (reverse system, dropped)
4. EURUSD D1 (reverse system, dropped)
5. EURUSD D1 variation #2 (obsolete)
6. GBPUSD H1
7. GBPUSD H1 variation #2
7. GBPUSD M5
8. GBPUSD D1 (obsolete, dropped)
9. EURNZD M5 (courtesy of merrygoround, reverse system, dropped)
10 EURJPY M5 (pass #2657, courtesy of merrygoround)
11 EURJPY M5 variation #2 (pass #4002, courtesy of merrygoround)
12 EURGBP M5 (pass #3120, courtesy of merrygoround)
13 USDJPY M5

Once the optimization is completed on a currency pair (CP)/time frame combination, a trading system is chosen from the thousands available. The way I choose a good trading system is described in detail.

Here is a sorted list of all the X Trader current trading systems in descending order by average profit per month:

1. EURJPY M5 $17443.91, 68m, $256.53/m, 17.66%dd, 37.34%wr
2. EURJPY M5-2 $14836.13, $218.18/m, 10.67%dd, 35.57%wr
3. GBPUSD M5 $15334.43, 78m, $204.71/m, 12.73%dd, 49.51%wr
4. GBPUSD H1-2 $14058.87, 78m, 180.24/m, 12.09%dd, 75%wr
5. USDJPY M5 $13096.83, 80m, 163.71/m, 5.71%dd, 26.02%wr
6. GBPUSD H1 $12484.95, 78m, $160.06/m, 9.04%dd, 71.15%wr
7. EURGBP M5 $8912.31, 69m, $129.16/m, 12.74%dd, 35.06%wr
8. EURUSD H1 $5275.13, 77m, $68.51/m, 25.48%dd, 32.86%wr

Where 'm' is month, 'dd' is closed trade draw down and 'wr' is win rate. All backtests are done at 0.10 (one mini) fixed lot with 10K starting capital.

Right now, the M5 trading systems are doing the best.

The above table will be updated when I post a trading system update.

Since I started using X Trader V1 in late 2012, V2 and V3 have appeared. In all of my tests so far, V1 still performs the best (IMHO) although I have yet to fully optimize V2 and V3. The optimization speed of V3, in particular, is about three to four times as slow.

I am currently running a USDJPY H1 optimization.

More later.

Rick
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Last edited by rsmereka; 2013-12-02 at 11:51 AM. Reason: Update
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Old 2013-01-14, 10:26 AM   #2
rsmereka
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Default EURUSD H1 Variation #1 (Obsolete)

This trading system and settings were obtained by first optimizing the two MA's, finding their ideal value when used with the default out-of-the-box SL (100 pips) and TP (150) pips.

I then ran a second optimization finding the ideal SL and TP.

Optimization was performed from Mar 30, 2007 to Nov 30, 2012.

This trading system is currently running on my live/real money secondary/savings account.

Strategy test and settings file are attached.

Rick
Attached Files
File Type: pdf xtrader-eurusd-h1-1.pdf (64.2 KB, 57 views)
File Type: set xtrader-eurusd-h1-1.set (228 Bytes, 30 views)
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Old 2013-01-14, 10:34 AM   #3
rsmereka
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Default EURUSD H1 Variation #2 (Obsolete)

This trading system and settings were obtained by running an optimization on MA1, MA2, SL and TP at the same time. The optimization took over 10 days to complete.

Optimization was performed from Mar 30, 2007 to Nov 30, 2012.

This trading system is currently running on my live/real money secondary/savings account.

Strategy test and settings file are attached.

Rick
Attached Files
File Type: pdf xtrader-eurusd-h1-2.pdf (49.9 KB, 57 views)
File Type: set xtrader-eurusd-h1-2.set (228 Bytes, 21 views)
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Old 2013-01-14, 06:38 PM   #4
thekillerpt
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thanks for sharing! i'll try this out.

I like the idea of having a SL and not using martingale
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Old 2013-01-15, 08:44 AM   #5
rsmereka
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Me too,

X Trader is a trend trader with full stop loss and take profit.

It does not use Martingale, grids or scalping and has a decent but not thrilling risk/reward ratio. The win percent is good but not super high. As backtested, system #2 has a higher win percent at 67.11% as opposed to system #1 at 51.92%.

Both systems do not trade that often. System #1 trades about twice a month and system #2 trades half of that at a little less than once a month.

Overall, I like system #2's equity curve better. Both systems have classic stair-case curves but system #2 has no prolonged DD (losing) periods (maximum 3 losses in a row) and also has no flat periods. System #1 has an prolonged flat period from about trade 80 to about trade 115 and the backtest shows a maximum of 7 losses in a row.

These backtests are only a rough guideline. I am hoping that by using tick data and not MetaTrader history center data that the accuracy of the backtests will improve and be closer to the system performance on live/real money accounts.

Rick
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Old 2013-01-15, 05:06 PM   #6
thekillerpt
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Rick,

i've backtested settings 2 from 2012-2013

starting balance 2000
it wins 21 for the whole year which is about 1% and really low

drawdown was 5% and it only did 10 trades

with 0.1 lots it will win 214 but with 43% drawdown which is too much
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Old 2013-01-16, 10:19 AM   #7
rsmereka
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Those are not the results that I got,

Are you using tick data or MetaTrader history center data? Backtests are marginally worthwhile when using tick data and totally useless when using MetaTrader history center data.

Rick
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Old 2013-01-16, 10:46 AM   #8
thekillerpt
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metatrader history, 90% modelling quality

I know they differ, but I had no idea the difference could be that big.

did you backtest fh with tick data?
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Old 2013-01-17, 10:04 AM   #9
rsmereka
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There is a substantial difference in the results between standard MT4 history center data and tick data. BTW, the so-called 'modeling quality' percent is just a number in the history file. It does not relate to the actual accuracy of the data.

As an example, take a browse through Birt's EA Review top EA list. This site does both history center backtests and tick data backtests. See the difference for yourself.

I have never backtested Forex Hacked with tick data and since I have years of live FH trading, there seems to be no point in doing that.

Rick
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Old 2013-01-17, 11:04 AM   #10
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rsmereka,

ok, thanks, I know that it usually matters the most for scalpers than for Fh for instance.

the back testing purpose will be just for making sure the amount will be enough to keep the account safe, but i'll try to use forex hacked math and determine na worst case scenario
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