Probability EA 7.1.1

This review is for Probability EA 7.1.1, the latest version of a very successful EA. My name is Michael W. Scofield and I am the creator of this EA. I started a demo forward test of my EA (although I use it live on my own private account) in late April 2010, and I will post the link below.

The philosophy behind this EA is that trading with the trend produces the highest probability of profits, but the trend can turn at any second. Rather than place a large order from the beginning, place consecutive smaller orders as the trend develops in your favor. If the market turns, you momentarily lose only a small amount rather than a large amount, had you placed a single large order from the beginning. But as the trend develops, so do your profits.

1. Determine the trend and always trade in that direction.
2. Rather than take one large position, take a small position and then add more small positions incrementally every 5-50 pips (depending upon settings).
3. If the trend changes, start to close trades.
4. Close all trades at a preset target level and start over.

I originally created this EA as an EA that I would use on my own account, which I do, so believe me, I want an EA that works just as much as you do. I have updated the EA several times as I have gotten feedback and suggestions from my clients. I completely stand behind my product and have nothing to hide, so I welcome all forward tests.

Below is the statement for Probability EA 7.1.1 started on April 29, 2010 on an M30 EURUSD chart:

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mwsc...ty-ea-71/31065

For more information and test results, you can visit:
http://michaelwscofield.blogspot.com/

[rsmereka]

Hi Michael,

An interesting EA you have there.

A couple of comments:

1. I am concerned about the DD. One strategy test on your website from Jan 2009-May 2010 shows a maximum of 61% DD.

2. I would like to see a nine year (minimum) backtest. I know this will take some time to run since your EA operates on an M30 chart (lots of bars). A long-term backtest IMHO will indicate whether your EA can be long-term profitable.

TIA,
Rick

So far so good. Up about 85% since April.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mwsc...ty-ea-71/31065

For more information and test results, you can visit:
http://michaelwscofield.blogspot.com/

[pipdetector]

Hi Michael,

I like the idea behind your EA, this is more or less what I do manually, but I am not consistent etc. and I guess EA could be of some help. Do you make the EA available for testing? Do you sell it?

Yes, the strategy has been working very well. If you want some more forward tests, you can also visit:

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mwsc...ty-ea-71/31065
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/metatr...bility_ea/demo
http://www.mt4i.com/users/jamesfrprobability/stats (click on Charts)
http://www.mt4i.com/users/probability_ea/stats (click on Charts)
http://forextoolshop.com/index.php?o...306&Itemid=136

All have been doing well.

You can purchase Probability EA 7.1.1 through PayPal at:
https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/websc...=59U7H4HG8ZXXL

I will email you the EA and User Manual as soon as payment is complete.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by pipdetector

Hi Mike,

I like the idea behind your EA, this is more or less what I do manually, but I am not consistent etc. and I guess EA could be of some help. Do you make the EA available for testing? Do you sell it?

pipdetector,

If you click on the blogspot link that he has posted at the end of his last post it is available for purchase there. It is $75. The only thing I don't like about this EA is that the drawdown on some of the backtests are pretty large as Rick had mentioned previously. Hope this helps.

Dan

[pipdetector]

Dan,

Thanks for the hint.

I guess the drawdown must occur when the market is out of trend ... Maybe one need to manually swich the EA of until a trend shows... 61% DD is definitely unacceptable .

On the other hand the swings in the recent months are so sweeping that it's hard to stay away from trend following system...

[Dan]

pipdetector,

I agree with you, a system like this is very interesting and cold be very profitable. I guess you could use it as a semi-auto EA by turning it on and off with trends. I like this system overall, mainly its technique. Let us know if you decide to try it.

Dan

[pipdetector]

I got it. Placed it on a demo account. Let's see how it works.

I tried to test it with Strategy Tester, but it could not start (with 3 different demo accounts), I wonder if you experienced something of this sort...

[pipdetector]

Still no success with Strategy Tester.

As for demo trades -- the beginning is not the best because I just hit upon EURUSD consolidation so the trades get whipsawed. I guess a monthly timeframe will make more sense as far as any conclusions are concerned. I just see how it may generate losses in "undecided" markets.