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Current Live robot Reviews Current forward tests of MetaTrader Forex robots (Expert Advisors)
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Old 2010-05-18, 08:48 AM   #41 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipdetector View Post
I agree that backtests cannot guarantee that EA will work, but at least they can show that an EA is no good from starters. Though I just cannot imagine any EA peddlar trying to push EA that does not at least have decent past performance.

So shortly, backtest do not guarantee that the EA will work, but at least they can signal that it did not work in the past too. ;-)
I agree with you and Ken,

Backtests are not worthless. They are not definitive either. They are IMHO, a first start, a very basic indicator .

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Name one EA or automated futures trading system backtest that even came close to performing the same in real market conditions.
All of the good long-term EA's that people here are using in their live accounts come close in performance to their backtests. To name a few: MegaDroid, The Channel Scalper, Robominer, GT-Shadow.

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Last edited by rsmereka; 2010-05-18 at 08:49 AM.
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Old 2010-05-18, 09:03 AM   #42 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rsmereka View Post
In a previous post, you seemed to like about 0.05 per 2K I think. Where as I think I am comfortable with 0.10 per 2K. I say "I think" because it's still to early to say definitely.

Can you tell me the reasons why you prefer the smaller lot size?

Rick
In my case, position size in case of FM should be such that I would risk just 1% of my equity. Taking into account the fact that FM has wide SL the position size would need to be small. Of course, when we know the EA "real" profit/loss ratio the position could be modified...

Well, after a major account blowing I started to get serious about position sizing. It's a pity I had to learn it this way
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Old 2010-05-18, 09:16 AM   #43 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipdetector View Post
In my case, position size in case of FM should be such that I would risk just 1% of my equity. Taking into account the fact that FM has wide SL the position size would need to be small. Of course, when we now the EA "real" profit/loss ratio the position could be modified...

Well, after a major account blowning I started to get serious about position sizing. It's a pity I had to learn it this way
I understand your concern,

I have also had a major account near total blow up and got burnt real good. For me, 2% (double your sizing) is acceptable as long as there is not a large string of losses (which is yet to be determined with this EA).

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Old 2010-05-18, 09:34 AM   #44 (permalink)
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Early this morning, my live account opened up one Forex Maximizer trade and one Forex Maximizer Advanced trade.

I started watching my demo account and could not figure out why it did not also take these trades.

I just logged onto my VPS and the Metatrader instance running Forex Maximizer crashed.

I think my Forex Maximizer demo has missed this trade but it may enter it yet.

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Old 2010-05-18, 12:23 PM   #45 (permalink)
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so far it seems that Forex Maximizer and Forex Maximizer Advanced are working great

does it trade 24/7 or just a short time frame like the MD?
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Old 2010-05-18, 12:41 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Ken:

Name one EA or automated futures trading system backtest that even came close to performing the same in real market conditions. I have traded the currency futures market way before retail spot currencies even started. My overall point is that backtest can not determine the overall effectiveness of a trading system. The reason is that fundamentals can not be predicted. We are traders here ...not programmers....this is something that has been forgotten in the MT4 world. So, in my book , a backtest can't work in the real world...it is worthless. Backtesting serves only one good purpose...and that is to see if code is working properly for development. 9 times out of 10 a trading a sytem based on historical data will leave your wallet empty. We are here to make money...not digits. If you use robots based on historical data...one day you will be caught on the wrong side of a lock limit market. Markets are ever changing...and that will never changed. This site promotes the only way effectively to evauluate a EA is on a live acount. I suggest you take that advise. Demo is a decent playground...and even there bots that claim AI, loose.

L

Backtesting works fine on many EA's. Megadroid tests very similar to its real running. Its one of the best ways to test different parameters ans see how they would have worked on past data, and many times it does determine the overall efectiveness of the EA.

Further it is the best and the quickest way to test and see how a new EA runs. This is not a performance test to predict the future, but a style test to see how the EA trades, how it enters and exits trades, how long its usual holding time is, whether it trades in a discernable pattern, whether it trades in a set time period, whether it progresively adjusts its stops and manages a trade, or just puts the trade out there with a stop and target.

You may not like backtesting for yourself, but the limitations you claim are pretty lame. Backtesting is the natural percurser to real time testing. Through a good backtesting 90% of commercial EA's can be eliminated immediately, and save you from wasting your time. Some fail right off because of the ignorant simplicity and limitations in their programing. Its fairly easy to spot an EA that doesnt manage its trades, or that simply runs off an indicator . Others fail simply because they dont fit ones trading style and needs.

L, your attitude is quite condescending and it doesnt really sound like you know what your talking about. Markets are ever changing, yet the patterns constantly repeat. EA's dont trade on fundamentals, they trade on mechanical systems, and these can be tested. A good EA needs to react to and filter price action, and this ability, or lack of it, is obvious in backtesting. Through backtesting its easy to see a simple EA that just runs off an indicator and takes every trade that come in. Its also easy to apply different filters when they are available and see how they affect the trading. This dosent promise perfection but its miles ahead of just putting an EA on an account and running the default program for months.

Backtesting is essential to optimization and systems design, and it is the necessary first step, before forward testing. Otherwise you waste a lot of time and never come near the optimum understanding and running of the program.

Last edited by Ken Long; 2010-05-18 at 12:44 PM.
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Old 2010-05-18, 03:46 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Default limitup - Your Forex Maximizer settings??

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Originally Posted by limitup View Post
You got that right. I just screwed myself, because I tried live on 4 minis with Advance . GBP/YEN. It tried to place stop and TP change to fast and it failed with broker . Broker has a 2 second changing order requirement....so, order was placed without a stop and TP . It was a fast market tonight as well. I'm getting a bad feeling that this EA was slapped together..nothing working right...but the last demo trades went well despite sever time and equity off.
http://stacy.mt4stats.com/

P.S. I ment sever time on the EA on chart.
Hi limitup,

I was just wondering if you are using the default settings for FM. I have a similar equity amount as in your demo account but my FM is trading at smaller lot sizes and is TP a lot faster then the trades you have. You currently have a trade open at $661 profit but mine closed at just $30. Thanks
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Old 2010-05-18, 04:12 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dennerle View Post
so far it seems that Forex Maximizer and Forex Maximizer Advanced are working great

does it trade 24/7 or just a short time frame like the MD?
No, FM can work 24/5, but you may restrict the hours it trades if you want (eg. if you do not want it to initiate trades at night etc).
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Old 2010-05-18, 04:17 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 77predator View Post

I was just wondering if you are using the default settings for FM. I have a similar equity amount as in your demo account but my FM is trading at smaller lot sizes and is TP a lot faster then the trades you have. You currently have a trade open at $661 profit but mine closed at just $30. Thanks
limitup is trading full lots. By default FM is trading minilots. As to the SL /TP it seems that FM uses two strateges -- one short and quick trade that may amount to 30 pips and large trades that have SL /TP set to over 100 pips. This is what I reckon from the trades that I had.
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Old 2010-05-18, 06:14 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Long View Post
Backtesting works fine on many EA's. Megadroid tests very similar to its real running. Its one of the best ways to test different parameters ans see how they would have worked on past data, and many times it does determine the overall efectiveness of the EA.

Further it is the best and the quickest way to test and see how a new EA runs. This is not a performance test to predict the future, but a style test to see how the EA trades, how it enters and exits trades, how long its usual holding time is, whether it trades in a discernable pattern, whether it trades in a set time period, whether it progresively adjusts its stops and manages a trade, or just puts the trade out there with a stop and target.

You may not like backtesting for yourself, but the limitations you claim are pretty lame. Backtesting is the natural percurser to real time testing. Through a good backtesting 90% of commercial EA's can be eliminated immediately, and save you from wasting your time. Some fail right off because of the ignorant simplicity and limitations in their programing. Its fairly easy to spot an EA that doesnt manage its trades, or that simply runs off an indicator . Others fail simply because they dont fit ones trading style and needs.

L, your attitude is quite condescending and it doesnt really sound like you know what your talking about. Markets are ever changing, yet the patterns constantly repeat. EA's dont trade on fundamentals, they trade on mechanical systems, and these can be tested. A good EA needs to react to and filter price action, and this ability, or lack of it, is obvious in backtesting. Through backtesting its easy to see a simple EA that just runs off an indicator and takes every trade that come in. Its also easy to apply different filters when they are available and see how they affect the trading. This dosent promise perfection but its miles ahead of just putting an EA on an account and running the default program for months.

Backtesting is essential to optimization and systems design, and it is the necessary first step, before forward testing. Otherwise you waste a lot of time and never come near the optimum understanding and running of the program.
Obviously EAs do not trade fundamentals....that is why they loose big in real trading. I made my points very clear. Take it for what it is worth from a experienced trader.

Last edited by limitup; 2010-05-18 at 06:15 PM.
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