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Originally Posted by Ken Long  But, as you mentioned the other half of the risk/reward ratio is the win/loss rate. If you can mantain a high 90+% win/loss rate, with very few consecutive losses, than using a higher SL than TP can work, at least theoreticaly. The problems seem to come from assuming too much reliability and setting a high risk level. Sooner or later any system will take a series of losses, and these scalpers could easily wipe out an account if your not prepared.
That said, I think these scalpers, and this EA in particular, are fine toys to add a few pips during an otherwise slow trading period. However, I can not think of them as stand alone money makers. As new2ea has mentioned, the majority of my trading profits also come from capturing swings and short term trends.
I dont know how you could mechanicaly automate the entire proccess as a good percentage requires discretionary choices, candlestick analysis, chart patterns, and multiple time frames. However, once the trading world gets over the idea of paying for fully automated EA's, as if they ever will, what is really needed is a semi automatic trading platform that can execute and manage manualy chosen trades. Something beyond the simple SL, TP, and Trailing Stop settings. This could be as simple as setting an entry point based on a breakout or reversal, with confirming oscillator and moving average, and several filters, and then following it with a manualy trailed SL and a TP.
If you can write an EA to manualy trail a stop based on a combination of support/resistance, fractal positions, moving average trend lines, and individual bar sizes, and automaticaly adjust its method of trade managment to allow for an oscillating trend or to capture a parabolic move, you might have something.
If you could then analyze the current risk, and add to the position as the stop rises, maintaining a maximum risk level, and holding several open orders, taking partial profits by closing some orders at ATR targets, and holding others on the trend line. Constantly adding to, and taking profits as the trend oscillates, untill it eventualy breaks down and closes all the position, or possibly goes parabolic triggering a different strategy involving a shorter time frame and tighter stops.
If you could write a program to do this automaticaly, or on a semi automatic basis where the user specified the trend and trend line to follow, and the EA picked out the different sorts of breakouts to initiate and close trade segments on. This would certainly be interesting. |
Yes indeed Ken, this is what I did for invisible-fx-landscape.com Multiple levels of sophistication. To handle one level of discernment I have as part of the optimizations the start and duration of the trading time! This I found was important beyond belief! Then there is set-up indicators, followed by Ichimoku 1min-bar capture indicators using 3 parameters also optimized, so its the full puppy! It's only been a few weeks of usage so it's so new still, plus as I go along optimizing each week I have more live$-1min-back-data collected to use in optimizing. It's got still a couple months to prove itself out still, but at least I'm using a live$-micro-account on the journey, not a demo nor its data! I even had to examine (due to going with variable time-slots) the periods of the year (re: EURUSD) when US & Europe have differing Daylight Savings time, decided to simply have the EA not trade during those 20 & 5 day periods.
Well, I piped-up not to advertise, but mainly because you seemed intrigued by the possibility of multiple levels of sophistication to handle real trading. Are you a real profiting fx trader, you sound like it from your discussion? I worked with 1ka to conceive, design, and program (his forte) this "Invis", so message me if you have successful trading method and we see if we can hash something out. There is one big problem right now, 1ka is "out" due to major programming jobs, his work, so not sure if and when all this could come about.
1ka just did one EA put-together for a "BerryBlonde", it's a thread in general area, it was succesfull in optimizations/back-test which I did, but it be up to anyone to use because it spent a lot of time in that during that back-test period's equity of just up 'n down flat, otherwise it did fairly well.
jb
ps: to avoid too much off-topic please message me if interested in new EA.